AGP Executive Report

Municipal Finance: New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani offered Jakarta financial experts to support the city’s planned municipal bond issuance, as Governor Pramono Anung seeks new infrastructure funding. Land Reform Law: Indonesia’s parliament passed a law to resolve land conflicts by setting agrarian reform priorities and creating a presidential body to plan, monitor, and settle disputes, including limits on land-holding sizes. Customs Crackdown: Finance Minister Suahasil Nazara outlined three steps to strengthen Customs and Excise oversight—cleaner staffing, heavier use of technology, and tighter systems. Export System Overhaul: Trade Minister Budi Santoso said Indonesia’s “single-door” export mechanism for coal, palm oil and ferroalloys is on track for full rollout by end-December 2026 via PT Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia. Power & Data Centers: Indonesia pushed 100 GW of new and renewable energy investment to back net-zero goals and pitched the country’s islands and renewables to attract energy-intensive data centers. Energy Security: Fuel reserves are maintained at 18–21 days despite Middle East risks, with subsidized prices held through year-end. AI Governance Pressure: Business leaders say AI adoption is outpacing safeguards, highlighting the need for clear accountability and vendor responsibility. Halal Standards: NCMF signed regional pacts with Indonesian and Malaysian experts to institutionalize Islamic family finance and halal cleansing training. Trade Outlook: Indonesia expects export growth to stay resilient even as crude oil prices rise, leaning on non-oil and gas surpluses.

Workplace Safety: The Philippines’ labor ministry (Dole) issued guidance urging employers to manage risks from smoke, haze and poor air quality, including ventilation/filtration, rescheduling outdoor work, and providing PPE when needed. Indonesia’s Education Policy Under Scrutiny: Police and health authorities are investigating alleged negligence after a new wave of mass food poisonings linked to Prabowo’s free school meals program (MBG), with thousands reported sick across hundreds of incidents. Central Banking & FX Liquidity: India’s RBI is dealing with a surge in rupee liquidity after a FCNR(B) swap window, raising questions about timing and potential dollar outflows. Digital & Payments: Visa extended its Mobile Legends: Bang Bang M Series partnership through 2029, while Indonesia’s Superbank (Grab ties) pushes growth amid a crowded banking market. Energy & Trade: LNG buyers are seeking more supply diversity as Iran-related disruptions affect Gulf shipments, with Indonesia among alternative sources. Climate & Weather: El Niño has hit record-level intensity, with impacts already felt from Central America to Indonesia. Halal & Regional Integration: Malaysia proposes an ASEAN Halal Council, with Indonesia suggested to chair. Jakarta Mobility: Green SM launched electric motorbike ride-hailing in Jakarta using VinFast scooters, adding two-wheel all-electric services to its taxi business.

IDX Demutualisation: Indonesia’s OJK issued the rule enabling public ownership of the Indonesia Stock Exchange, separating exchange membership from shareholding and capping direct/indirect ownership at 5% (Danantara could become a major shareholder). Banking Oversight: OJK said Himbara banks’ lending growth is broad-based across SOEs and private borrowers, but urged continued risk management as they support programs like KUR, housing, cooperatives and MBG. Oil & Gas Diplomacy: Pertamina signaled interest in Nigeria’s 2026 upstream licensing round, while NUPRC opened talks on investment priorities as both countries target higher production. Energy & Industry: The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry named six oil-and-gas working areas for Phase I of the 2026 tender, and Samsung E&A unveiled an LNG Module Package to cut LNG plant timelines by about 20%. Food & Trade Policy: Trade Minister Budi Santoso said e-commerce rules must prioritize local products and boost transparency, while Bulog will release premium rice to stabilize supply amid reported shortages. Jakarta Finance Cooperation: New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani offered a financial advisory team to support Jakarta’s plan to issue municipal bonds.

Forest Fires & Haze: Indonesia’s 2026 wildfires are back at scale, with nearly 900,000 hectares burned by late August and haze likely to linger into early November, threatening health and regional air quality. Rural Livelihoods: In South Kalimantan, farmers say firefighting response left hoses unable to reach blazes, compounding losses and rebuilding costs. AI Governance: Indonesia is moving toward structured AI oversight, with a National AI Roadmap and AI Ethics Framework drafted for pending presidential approval amid rising scam and deepfake risks. Corruption Watch: Prosecutors and defendants have filed appeals over Medan Corruption Court’s Inalum graft verdicts, keeping the Rp141 billion state-loss case in motion. Legal & Society: A BBC investigation says an Indonesian teacher convicted of sexual abuse was secretly released early, reigniting scrutiny of safeguards in Islamic boarding schools. Energy & Trade: Pertamina is in talks with Nigeria’s upstream regulator ahead of the 2026 licensing round, signaling renewed cross-border oil and gas investment interest. Regional Markets: Drewry’s Intra-Asia container index rose 6% to $1,402 per 40ft as disruptions keep logistics tight.

Transboundary Haze & Fire Response: Malaysia offered Indonesia firefighting help as haze returns, proposing a Bombardier CL-415MP aircraft, three helicopters and 52 personnel for transboundary fire suppression, while Indonesia’s fire season may run until early November. Legal Pressure on Forest Fires: A West Kalimantan civil society coalition filed a class-action lawsuit seeking haze to be declared a national disaster, with an initial hearing set for Oct 7. Local Cost of Wildfires: In South Kalimantan, farmers say firefighting logistics failed to reach blazes, wiping out crops and livelihoods, as the 2026 burn area climbs. ASEAN–China Trade & Tech: The China-ASEAN Expo in Nanning is pushing CAFTA 3.0 and unveiled an AI marketplace linking Chinese AI solutions with ASEAN needs, with Indonesia highlighting cooperation on green tech, sustainability and digital trade facilitation. Mobility & EV Business: Green SM launched its 6-seat electric taxi service in Indonesia and rolled out a VinFast-linked rental program for driver partners. Regional Trade Signals: India reported exports to core BRICS markets rising 34% to $19.9bn in Apr–Aug 2026-27, led by a 39% jump to China—another reminder of shifting trade gravity. Tourism Cost Relief: Indonesia’s tourism ministry plans flight subsidies via bundled travel packages as domestic airfares rise with higher fuel surcharges.

IDX Market Rules: Indonesia’s stock exchange will remove the long-standing Rp50 minimum share price floor and shift to a Rp1 baseline from Sept. 28, aiming to improve price discovery and liquidity. Halal Compliance for SMEs: The MSMEs ministry says mandatory halal certification enforcement will consider micro and small business constraints, with a self-declare scheme via BPJPH taking effect for food and beverage from Oct. 18, 2026. Wildfire & Haze Costs: New reporting shows 2026 fires in Kalimantan are again disrupting air quality and livelihoods, with farmers and families facing major losses as burning may last until early November. Ferry Rescue Update: Indonesia extended the search for missing passengers from the Virgo Transport 8 capsizing in the Java Sea for another seven days; nine deaths confirmed, 126 still missing. Whoosh Debt Talks: Luhut says Indonesia and China are progressing on the Jakarta–Bandung Whoosh debt repayment mechanism, with execution now the key step. Tourism FX: Indonesia’s tourism generated US$8.43bn in foreign-exchange revenue in H1 2026, reinforcing the sector’s role in growth and FX earnings. Mining M&A Watch: Nickel deal scrutiny continues as regulators review MMG’s proposed purchase of Anglo American’s Brazilian nickel business amid competition concerns over low-carbon ferronickel. Cileungsi River Pollution: Bogor authorities identified 23 firms suspected of illegal wastewater discharges into the Cileungsi River, exceeding permitted limits.

Halal Trade Push: Indonesia’s BPJPH said the 5th Halal 20 (H20) Summit’s opening day secured 39 strategic partnerships, including 15 mutual recognition agreements with international halal bodies, to expand globally accepted certification and workforce cooperation. Regional Diplomacy & Economy: Indonesia took over the ASEAN Committee in Washington (ACW) chairmanship, aiming to broaden ASEAN-U.S. cooperation into trade, investment, digital economy/AI, clean energy, health, innovation, and supply chains. Cross-Border Fire Response: Indonesia accepted Malaysia’s firefighting offer for Kalimantan haze, approving deployment of a CL-415MP aircraft, helicopters, and personnel, alongside longer-term prevention measures. Aviation & Connectivity: Singapore Airlines was named the world’s top airline for 2026 by Skytrax, while Kuwait Airways again missed the top-100 list. Digital Payments Watch: India’s RBI deputy governor said a new UPI merchant discount rate is unlikely to drive a return to cash, as cash still matters as a store of value. Tech Security Alert: Fortinet warned of active exploitation of a critical Orkes Conductor flaw (unauthenticated remote code execution), urging rapid patching. Commodities: Copper mine output is tracking toward its first annual decline since 2017 as prices hit record levels, raising supply-balance concerns for electrification demand.

Halal Trade Boost: Korea and Indonesia signed a halal certification cooperation deal, aiming to streamline approvals as Indonesia’s mandatory halal rules for imported food, beverages and cosmetics kick in Oct. 18—an important move for K-food and beauty exporters. Indonesia Capital Markets & Policy: Indonesia’s finance minister shake-up continues to dominate investor chatter, with officials pledging policy continuity and tax refunds for overpaid taxes as markets watch fiscal discipline. Maritime & Defense: Indonesia received its first aircraft carrier, a former Italian warship renamed Gajah Mada, underscoring Jakarta’s push to modernize maritime security. Corporate Deals: Grab is moving deeper into lending by buying 60% of Atome Financial for $1.49b, strengthening its ASEAN super-app strategy. Commodities & Food Inputs: Palm oil prices slipped on weaker rival edible oils and crude, while CPO futures stayed pressured by higher production expectations and export demand signals. Energy Transition Research: A new study says electrifying transport plus mode shifts could sharply cut urban fuel demand and oil/gas imports across major economies including Indonesia. Identity & Compliance Tech: Singapore-based KT Cap Consulting announced an MoU partnership with Zeliy Engineering to set up an international sales office in Singapore for high-net-worth services.

Fiscal & Tax: Indonesia’s central government spending hit Rp1,791.5 trillion (56.9% of the Rp3,149.7 trillion budget ceiling) by Aug 31, with Finance Minister Suahasil Nazara urging efficient, high-impact spending. He also promised tax refunds for businesses that are “legally entitled,” after complaints about delays. Energy Self-Reliance: The government outlined six steps to cut reliance on imports, including accelerating domestic energy sources, pushing B50/E50 blends, and targeting 100 GWp solar within three years. Corporate & Deals: Ultrajaya seeks approval to acquire Frisian Flag Indonesia for Rp14.57 trillion, via share-inbreng, with FrieslandCampina set to become controlling shareholder. Grab agreed to buy 60% of Atome Financial for about S$1.49b to expand lending across Southeast Asia. Markets & Commodities: Palm oil futures fell on weaker rival oils and crude, but still gained for the week; Bayan Resources shares surged after a deal to sell a 30% stake to a politically connected tycoon. Trade & Regional Business: China-ASEAN Expo opened in Nanning with CAFTA 3.0 focus and AI, while Hong Kong-Indonesia business ties got a boost via HKCHAM’s inauguration in Jakarta. Environment & Enforcement: Jember police warned of up to 15 years in jail and Rp10b fines for deliberate forest burning as patrols and banners ramp up. Disaster & Logistics: Rescue efforts for the capsized Virgo Transport 8 remain high-risk, with currents, waves, and hull conditions slowing divers as officials continue searching for missing passengers. Health & Industry: Worley delivered FEEDs for Inpex’s Abadi LNG and CCS work in Indonesia’s Masela block; UNDP highlighted seaweed value-add opportunities to lift coastal incomes beyond raw exports.

Forest-Fire Enforcement: President Prabowo orders police to investigate criminal liability for companies linked to forest and land fires in Sumatra and Kalimantan, saying licence revocation alone is not enough—amid haze disruptions and heightened fire-risk conditions. Halal Compliance Pressure: Businesses warn they are “not ready” for Indonesia’s Oct. 18 mandatory halal certification, citing complex procedures and certification-system gaps that could raise costs and disrupt supply chains; Trade Minister Budi Santoso counters that halal certification is not an import restriction, so goods can still enter but must be certified after distribution. Food Safety Crackdown: Indonesia investigates 25 of 27 fortified rice brands that allegedly failed to meet nutritional claims, with potential consumer losses estimated at 89 trillion IDR, and plans licence revocations and product withdrawals. Maritime Safety Scrutiny: After the Virgo Transport 8 ferry capsized in the Java Sea, authorities probe registration status and vessel age rules, as lawmakers question whether ferry age standards need review. Energy & Investment: Lion Energy begins rig mobilisation for its Bula-Karang-1 exploration well in Indonesia, targeting 12 million barrels of oil; separately, Indonesia’s foreign ministry says it remains compliant with ASEAN haze protocols despite transboundary smoke. Regional Trade & Tech: China-ASEAN Expo opens in Nanning with a focus on CAFTA 3.0 and marine/blue-economy cooperation, while Indonesia pushes human-centred AI adoption at work and continues digital finance cooperation.

Forest-Fire Crackdown: President Prabowo ordered an “all-out” probe into corporate forest and land fires, pushing tougher sanctions and even classifying severe cases as “ecological terrorism,” as police opened 219 investigations and named 162 suspects plus 95 companies. Fiscal Checks: Indonesia’s Constitutional Court limited the government’s ability to shift 2026 budget allocations via presidential regulation without DPR approval, a move that could affect priority programs like the Free Nutritious Meals (MBG). Food Security & Trade: Trade Minister Budi Santoso said retail rice stocks are safe amid a recall of fortified rice brands, citing Bulog’s plan to add 1 million tons under the SPHP program. Investment Push: Indonesia secured US$4.96bn (Rp88.1tn) in Chinese commitments under the Two Countries Twin Parks (TCTP) framework, after earlier MOUs totaling Rp37.1tn. Digital & Jobs: The migrant workers ministry plans wider placements to selected Asian and European markets for 2026, targeting 350,000 workers. Markets & Rates: Indonesia-focused sentiment tracked global moves after the Fed raised rates, while oil slid—factors that also fed into Jakarta’s stock mood. Corporate Deal: Grab signed agreements to buy a controlling 60% stake in Atome Financial for US$1.49bn, expanding consumer lending across Southeast Asia.

Indonesia-Canada Trade Deal: Indonesia and Canada are preparing full implementation of the ICA-CEPA, targeted to enter into force by late 2026, with tariff cuts on most tariff lines and exports projected to reach US$11.8bn by 2030. Indonesia Finance Shakeup: The Whoosh Jakarta–Bandung high-speed rail ownership plan is now delayed after Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa was replaced by Suahasil Nazara, with debt handling to be revisited. Wildfire Crackdown: Indonesia sealed about 50 companies across eight provinces over forest and land fire hotspots, as authorities track 1,037 high-confidence hotspots nationwide. Energy Roadmap at G20: Indonesia outlined an energy security-first roadmap at G20 in Texas, including boosting oil output to 1mn bpd and pushing B50 biofuel to cut diesel imports. Regional Growth Outlook: Bain/DBS/Vriens forecast Southeast Asia’s six largest economies to grow 4.8% annually through 2035, led by Vietnam, with Indonesia facing downside risks. Conservation & Enforcement: Police are investigating the alleged spearing of a protected hawksbill turtle in Raja Ampat, while a separate study highlights how pay-to-release shark programs can backfire. AI & Trade Compliance: The US is training dozens of countries on forced-labor import bans, raising compliance pressure across tech and supply chains. Business Moves: Grab is expanding lending after buying a majority stake in Atome Financial, and Lippo General Insurance targets top-five ranking after Hanwha-led turnaround.

Forest-Fire Crackdown: Indonesia sealed about 50 companies across eight provinces after forest and land fire hotspots were found in their concessions, with authorities monitoring firms and promising sanctions if involvement is proven; meanwhile, SiPongi data showed 1,037 high-confidence hotspots nationwide as of Tuesday night, with Central Kalimantan and South Sumatra the biggest contributors. El Niño Budget Shield: Finance Minister Suahasil Nazara said the 2026 budget includes built-in flexibility and large disaster buffers—1.1tn rupiah baseline allocation, 256bn on-call funds, a 5tn contingency fund, plus 14tn pooled insurance and 10tn for long-term rehabilitation—aimed at drought and extreme weather. Energy Policy Watch: Energy Minister Bahlil Lahadalia insisted coal RKAB quotas are sufficient for PLN needs and blamed recent outages on El Niño-linked drought cutting hydropower output, not coal shortages. Finance Leadership & Investor Mood: Indonesia appointed technocrat Suahasil Nazara as finance minister after Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa was sacked following internal clashes, as markets seek more policy certainty. Digital Payments Expansion: Bank Indonesia is exploring cross-border QRIS use with Saudi Arabia, India, Vietnam and Australia, alongside BI-FAST connectivity. Nuclear Push: IAEA chief Rafael Grossi said Indonesia is accelerating nuclear power plans, including SMRs, with IAEA support and a requested infrastructure review mission for 2027. AI Governance: An observer said Indonesia’s AI roadmap and ethics guidelines broadly match global risk-based trends, but implementation gaps remain in standards, audits, data quality, security and talent. Corporate Moves: Grab agreed to buy 60% of Atome Financial in a $1.49b deal to expand Southeast Asia lending. Trade & Industry: Indonesia’s cosmetics SMEs (IKM) boosted exports to $473.8m in 2025 (+13.7%), and the government outlined four pillars for designing tax incentives under global minimum tax rules. Regional Risk: Malaysia’s haze concerns persist as smoke from Indonesian fires reaches parts of Borneo, with hazardous air readings reported earlier in September.

Forced-Labor Trade Controls: The US USTR trained 50+ trading partners on enforcing forced-labor import bans, citing Indonesia among economies that have adopted measures since July. Solar Trade & Tariffs: The US finalized steep anti-dumping and countervailing duties on solar cells/panels from India, Indonesia and Laos, with implementation tied to an Oct. 14 injury decision. Fintech Deal: Grab will buy a controlling 60% stake in Atome Financial for $1.49b to expand AI-driven lending across Southeast Asia. Digital ID Push: Indonesia’s IKD digital ID passed 20.5m users, with KTP-el registration reaching 97% of the population. Indonesia External Debt: Indonesia’s external debt edged up to $454.8b in July. BRICS in Focus: The New Delhi BRICS summit wrapped with a long declaration on trade, tariffs and institutional reform, while highlighting internal divisions amid Middle East tensions. Regional Trade Connectivity: China-ASEAN trade gets a protocol push under CAFTA 3.0 and RCEP, with the China-ASEAN Expo set to spotlight digital and green cooperation. Maritime Safety Crisis: Indonesia’s ferry disaster off Java Sea left 6 dead and 129 missing as rescue efforts continue.

BRICS Summit Wrap: BRICS leaders closed the New Delhi summit and adopted the New Delhi Declaration, stressing climate adaptation, energy security, sustainable forest/water/land management, UN Security Council reform, and calls to cut trade friction via multilateralism and local-currency payments. Indonesia Finance Shake-up: President Prabowo reshuffled again, sacking Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa and appointing Suahasil Nazara, as the government targets 6% growth for 2027 and a deficit of 2.40% of GDP—raising investor focus on policy predictability and fiscal discipline. Whoosh Debt Question: Indonesia is preparing to absorb debt payments for the China-backed Whoosh Jakarta–Bandung rail, with officials saying the burden is manageable after restructuring, but critics warn taxpayers may be left subsidising a project whose costs ballooned. Fintech Deal: Grab agreed to buy 60% of Atome Financial for US$1.49bn (with full takeover later), aiming to expand consumer lending across Singapore, Malaysia, the Philippines, Indonesia and Thailand. Maritime Safety: A ferry capsized in Indonesia’s Java Sea, with survivors telling Reuters the ship overturned in minutes and rescue took hours; the tragedy is reigniting scrutiny of safety and alarm procedures. Coastal Economy Push: Indonesia will build 5,000 Red and White Fishermen’s Villages by end-2029 to strengthen storage, processing, marketing and bargaining power for coastal communities. ASEAN Finance Cooperation: Bank Indonesia and Vietnam’s central bank co-chaired ASEAN’s financial integration meeting, reinforcing regional banking coordination. Energy & Trade Risks: OCBC warned higher oil prices could widen ASEAN current account deficits, especially if El Niño hits exports and food production. Palm Oil Watch: Palm futures rose for a second straight session on crude strength and expectations of tighter supply tied to Indonesia’s biodiesel mandate and El Niño. Tourism & Culture: Wonderful Indonesia Gastronomy 2026 expands programming across Solo and Yogyakarta, while Indonesia also pushes tourism promotion and culinary heritage.

Indonesia Finance Shake-up: President Prabowo sacked Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa and appointed Deputy Suahasil Nazara as the new finance chief, with Nazara pledging to keep the deficit below 3% and maintain fiscal credibility to calm investor jitters. Ferry Disaster Watch: Search teams are still looking for 129 people missing after the Virgo Transport 8 capsized in the Java Sea; six deaths were confirmed and rescuers deployed aircraft, vessels, divers and underwater drones. AI Infrastructure Push: Zankore is building an initial 100MW NVIDIA-powered AI infrastructure in Indonesia to expand AI cloud capacity for startups, enterprises and developers across Southeast Asia. Digital Trade & Internet Access: A report warns the U.S. reciprocal trade agreements include clauses that could restrict which ICT suppliers countries can use, raising concerns for internet access in developing economies including Indonesia. Energy & Trade Risk: Saudi Arabia’s closure of its East-West oil pipeline after an attack is expected to disrupt crude flows and could push global fuel prices higher, with knock-on effects for regional economies. Wildfire Relief: As El Niño-driven fires worsen in Borneo, rescuers and NGOs are racing to protect orangutans and save more animals from burning landscapes.